Based on the standings after round 9, 2026.
This commentary is generated automatically using AI and may be inaccurate. It shouldn't be relied on for financial, betting, or investment decisions.
Antonelli holds a 25-point cushion with 13 races and 2 sprints remaining, worth a maximum 350 points still available. He needs only to maintain consistency and avoid a catastrophic collapse to secure the title; even a string of second-place finishes would likely be enough. The championship is his to lose.
Mercedes — 179 points, 5 wins this season.Russell sits 25 points adrift in second, mathematically very much alive but facing an uphill battle. He would need Antonelli to underperform significantly while converting most remaining races into wins—a scenario that demands near-perfection from himself and fortune against his teammate.
Mercedes — 154 points, 2 wins this season.Hamilton trails by 32 points with the same 350 available, keeping him technically in contention but requiring consistent wins and Antonelli's decline. At 39 years old, his Ferrari debut has yielded only one victory in nine races, making a title charge from third increasingly unlikely despite the raw points math.
Ferrari — 147 points, 1 win this season.Leclerc sits 71 points back and would realistically need a perfect run of victories combined with Antonelli's complete collapse to have a genuine chance. While mathematically alive, the deficit and his single win so far make a title recovery practically implausible.
Ferrari — 108 points, 1 win this season.Norris remains 82 points behind without a single win this season, facing an extremely difficult path that requires sustained excellence from here onward. Though not mathematically eliminated, his lack of victories and mid-grid position in the standings make a title push highly improbable.
McLaren — 97 points, 0 wins this season.Piastri's 97-point deficit and winless record make his title chances virtually non-existent from this position. Even a near-flawless second half combined with multiple retirements for those ahead would leave him short; realistically, his focus should shift to securing best-of-the-rest honors.
McLaren — 82 points, 0 wins this season.